[Salon] North Korea fuels war rumblings with hypersonic missile launch



https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/North-Korea-fuels-war-rumblings-with-hypersonic-missile-launch

North Korea fuels war rumblings with hypersonic missile launch

Foreign minister in Russia this week as part of burgeoning relationship

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits a munitions factory in this photo released by the country's official news agency.    © KCNA/Kyodo

SEOUL -- North Korea's top diplomat arrived in Moscow on Monday, state media reported, to meet her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, who visited the North in October. The trip by Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui comes a day after the country claimed to have successfully tested a new solid-fuel hypersonic missile. 

The missile launch and Choe's visit highlight Pyongyang's growing focus on two goals: boosting the power and sophistication of its weapons arsenal and deepening ties with Cold War-era partners such as Russia. 

Sunday's launch is the latest in a series of weapons tests by the North in recent months. Last month, Pyongyang fired what it said was a solid-fuel Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile. In November, the country claimed to have successfully put its first reconnaissance satellite into orbit, following two failed attempts last year.

Leader Kim Jong Un has identified the launch of three new spy satellites as well as the building of drones and strengthening of the country's nuclear weaponry as goals for this year. 

Alongside the weapons tests has been a hardening of the rhetoric North Korea's leadership uses when discussing the outside world, particularly South Korea. Last week, state media reported that Kim had visited a munitions factory where he referred to the South as his country's "main enemy" while saying his nation needs to keep "stockpiling overwhelming power."

Kim did not overtly threaten to attack South Korea, but said "we have no intention of avoiding war" if Seoul were to initiate conflict.

A ballistic missile, said to be solid-fuel and hypersonic, launches during a test at an unspecified location in North Korea in this picture released by the Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 14.   © KCNA/Kyodo

Recent state media missives have used South Korea's formal name, the Republic of Korea, when referring to the country, instead of the North's previous practice of referring to it as the southern half of the Korean Peninsula. The change in language marks a departure from talking about the two Koreas as part of one divided country and instead as two enemy states.

At the same time, North Korea has increased cooperation with Russia, with governments in the U.S. and South Korea saying that Russia is firing missiles obtained from North Korea in its assault on Ukraine.

Last week, the U.S. imposed sanctions on three Russian entities and one individual it said was involved in the transfer and testing of those missiles. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that the U.S. "will use all available tools to designate and expose individuals and entities involved in arms transfers between [North Korea] and Russia."

Experts are divided as to whether these moves constitute a fundamental change in North Korea's tactics or merely a continuation of its old pattern of ratcheting up tensions through harsh words and displays of weaponry, then seeking concessions by offering to halt testing. 

A commentary published last week on 38 North, a North Korea-focused website, by two prominent experts argued that "the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950," referencing the month the Korean War broke out. 

"Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war," the piece continued, contending that Pyongyang is planning to finally put its large military arsenal to use and could carry out a surprise attack.

On the other hand, Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, describes both the aggressive phrasing and military testing as "nothing new."

"North Korea has used this kind of adversarial language before, then switched to using friendlier terms when it suited them," Park told Nikkei Asia. 

Park said Sunday's launch is part of North Korea's efforts to develop the capability to strike the U.S. mainland, though is no evidence that North Korea plans to start a war. Pyongyang's broader goal is to develop its weapons programs to a point where the U.S. must recognize it as a de facto nuclear power, he said, adding that the North's next move would be to hold negotiations with the U.S. where it would offer to freeze weapons testing in return for a lifting of economic sanctions.

Nevertheless, the North is likely to maintain its combative posture in the coming months. South Korea will hold legislative elections in April and the U.S. will elect a new president in November, and North Korea often carries out provocations during times of political change in those countries.

"The Kim regime is in a buildup phase," said Patrick M. Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Washington-based think tank Hudson Institute.

"It will return to seeking tactical diplomacy with Seoul ... or Washington when it thinks the opportunity for winning steeper concessions appears more obtainable," Cronin told Nikkei.



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